- Coincident measures of real growth continue to slowly march lower on a trending basis.
- Leading indicators of real growth show no signs of an imminent inflection higher in growth.
- Jerome Powell was extremely hawkish after raising interest rates 0.25%.
- The yield curve flattened massively in response to slowing growth and an overly hawkish Federal Reserve.
- Risk assets like equities are too optimistic about the cyclical risks. In the context of a balanced portfolio, I'd look to trim risk exposure in favor of defensive bond or equity exposure.
For further details see:
FOMC Summary: A Collision On The Horizon