2025-05-21 02:55:00 ET

Summary

• Tariff and trade-related risks and uncertainties have diminished, but not disappeared.
• The reductions in US and Chinese tariffs were agreed faster and went further than assumed in our May forecast update.
• The front-loading of activity to avoid expected rises in tariffs is distorting economic data.
• April’s US consumer price data showed little signs of tariff-related effects.

Tariff and trade-related risks and uncertainties have diminished, but not disappeared. April’s US reversal on tariffs and May’s subsequent agreement with mainland China to substantially reduce tariffs have had signi?cant near-term effects on ?nancial and commodity markets, with equity indices, crude oil prices and the US dollar rebounding on the news....

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