- I present five principles for commodity trading rooted in 300 years' worth of data.
- The long-term principles point to depressed commodity returns throughout the remainder of the decade.
- Most of the short-term principles point to negative returns over one- to three-year periods.
- But this momentum within this context of late-stage equity supercycles and systemic risk suggests taking out insurance against extreme inflationary outcomes.
- Because commodity prices are likely to see extreme reversals, commodity positions should be small and be overweight gold.
For further details see:
How And Why I Am Breaking My Rules For Commodity Trading