Editor's note: This article was originally published on Feb. 23, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here.
Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast - a lot faster than expansions. Who's forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecasters has been postponed until March because of the data delays associated with the Trump government shutdown).
Figure 1: Histogram of forecasted GDP Growth Rates, for 2019 (top), for 2020 (middle) and 2021 (bottom). High, median and low predictions labeled in red. Source: WSJ February survey.
James F. Smith of Parsec