Introduction
Profits are a good, long leading indicator of recessions four to eight quarters prior to the onset. Corporate profits have been declining for years. This article looks at profits, profit margin, dividends, investment asset flows and trends, and recession outlook. Investors are reducing risk by shifting to bonds, cash, and real estate.
I use a ranking system based on valuation, momentum, risk, risk-adjusted returns, and yield to identify recession-resistant funds. This month, I looked at which Fund Families are accessible to investors through Vanguard, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab as no/low transaction fees. The number