How do you define irrational exuberance? There's no single answer, much less one that offers flawless signals for timing rallies and corrections in financial markets. But the latest trend data for all the major asset classes (based on proxies via a set of exchange-traded funds) suggests that this year's rally may be overextended for strategies that are globally diversified.
The source for the analysis is a simple methodology for calculating the trend (based on moving averages) for each of the ETF proxies and then aggregating the results in a diffusion index. For defining the trend,