Core inflation has recovered a bit in the last two months, but we remain in the context of relatively low non-shelter inflation and high shelter inflation, averaging out to roughly on-target total core inflation.
I will probably continue to do these updates for a while, but I suspect the context is set, and specific shifts in inflation won't affect things much in the near term. Inflation isn't likely to shift sharply in either direction, and in the time frame that is important for the Fed right now, noise dominates information. So, effectively, Fed discretion will