June consumption was strong, while production was weak
Tuesday morning's retail sales and industrial production releases for June are consistent with my take that the consumer sector of the economy is doing OK, while the production sector remains in trouble.
Let's start with retail sales.
Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms, they can tell us so much about the present, near-term forecast, and longer-term forecast for the economy.
This morning retail sales for June were reported up +0.4%, while May was revised downward by -0.1%. Since consumer inflation increased