Introduction: I’ve been forecasting a slowdown in the leading job sectors
For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural progression of a downturn in long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, and finally to coincident indicators of which jobs along with industrial production are the Queen and King, respectively. Further, I have pointed out that, even when the spread between short- and long-term bonds simply gets tight, even if there is no outright inversion, employment growth almost always falters. And goods-producing employment