- The long leading indicators are those which have a lengthy track record of accurately forecasting a peak in economic activity 12 or more months out.
- As of yesterday’s revised GDP report for Q1, a majority have now turned negative.
- While a recession in 2023 is not certain, there is a heightened probability of one beginning as early as Q1 of next year sufficient to go on "Recession Watch."
- From here, we want to see if the downturn in the long leading indicators is sustained or quickly reverses; and whether the downturn begins to show up in an increasing number of short leading indicators.
For further details see:
Long Leading Forecast Update: Recession Watch Beginning Q1 2023