The "risk-off" mood in global markets deepened last week - as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe haven assets such as gold rallied. We still see limited near-term recession risks as central banks' dovish pivot helps stretch the economic cycle, yet caution that trade and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.
Chart of the week
Ten-year government bond yields, 2009-2019
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, August 2019. Notes: The data are based on the 10-year