- We revised lower our storage projection for 11/5 week to +5 Bcf down from +15 Bcf. For the time being, we are still projecting 1.45 Tcf for April 2022.
- Weather models started to trend colder than normal over the past week pushing the supply/demand balance back into a small deficit.
- The big news over the weekend, in our view, is the surge we saw in Lower 48 gas production.
- The jump in Lower 48 production is higher than expected by ~1.5 Bcf/d. We had originally estimated Lower 48 gas production to exit the year around ~95 Bcf/d, but with the increase, this looks closer to ~96.5 Bcf/d.
- With production now exiting the year around ~96.5 Bcf/d or higher by 4.5 Bcf/d than the beginning of the year, it does call into question how tight 2022 looks like.
For further details see:
Lower 48 Gas Production Hits High For The Year While Weather Models Trend Colder