- Currently, I expect the EIA to report a build of 73 bcf next week (a final estimate will be released on Wednesday).
- If the latest weather forecast remains unchanged, total natural gas demand will increase by 9.9 bcf/d y-o-y (on average) over the next two weeks.
- Storage deficit vs. five-year average is projected to expand by 97 bcf by July 16 (from -69 bcf to -166 bcf).
- The two most bullish factors are not going away: the bullish weather forecast and relatively high nuclear outages.
- I do not feel comfortable buying above $3.100 per MMBtu – especially, at a time when so much depends on the whims of the weather and fuel-switching economics favor coal over natural gas.
For further details see:
Natural Gas: Fundamentally Overvalued And Technically Overbought