Last year, I wrote "NFIB Survey Trips Economic Alarms," in which I discussed the release of the National Federation of Independent Business small business survey. While the NFIB was ebullient in their analysis, we warned the data suggested a "recession" was lurking in the shadows. To wit:
"Today, we once again see many of the early warnings. If you have been paying attention to the trend of the economic data, and the yield curve, the warnings are becoming more pronounced. In 2007, the market warned of a recession 14-months in advance of the recognition.