I've heard many times that we can talk ourselves into a recession by too many doom-and-gloom discussions. We seem to be running that experiment right now, with rising concerns about an economic downturn. But a look at history shows we never have talked ourselves into recession, and the likelihood that we do so in the future is minuscule.
Consumer attitudes influence consumer spending, which is a huge part of the economy. One key lesson I learned early in my forecasting career is that consumer confidence typically follows the economy, not leads it. When unemployment is