4Q2021 Results Ahead of Expectations Due to TCE Rate Out Performance. 4Q2021 EBITDA of $38.0 million was ahead of expectations mainly due to higher TCE rates of $32.6k/day and higher shipping days of 5,199. Positive variance was driven by higher TCE revenue and lower opex that more than offset higher voyage and charter hire expenses.Call with management today at 8am EST. Number is 866-518-6930 and code is PANLQ421. We expect management to highlight the fleet expansion, TCE rate out performance and attractive dry bulk market fundamentals.Well positioned after positive developments last year. Moving 2022 EBITDA estimate to $98.0 million from $85.6 million and TCE rate estimate to $24.8k/day from $23.2k/day. Strong 2021 results make comps tough, but this year should be solid and TCE rate on 1Q2022 forward cover approximates $26.5k/day. Positive outlook based on a consistent commercial strategy that adds value in different market environments, a leading Ice Class market position, substantial progress on renewing and expanding the fleet, and success financing several acquisitions, including one in 1Q2022.Staying positive on dry bulk market, but expecting volatility and seasonality. The dry bulk market is expected to remain volatile with typical seasonality, but our intermediate term outlook remains positive based on infrastructure projects and expanding demand plus port congestion. Also, the order book remains muted, and the January 1, 2023 implementation of new carbon emission regulations (EEXI) could trigger slow steaming that effectively lowers supply and tightens the market.Maintain Outperform Rating and increasing price target to $7.50/share from $6.50/share. While the dry bulk market materially has been volatile with concerns about economic growth, mainly in China, and the potential impact of the Ukraine invasion on global trade flows, we believe that supply/demand are close to balanced and any disruption should be short. Plus, we like the consistency of the unique business model, the timely expansion of the fleet and higher public market float following the exit of a former major shareholder. While recent performance has been strong and the stock is up 56% in 1Q2022, we believe that PANL remains attractive, trading at an enterprise value multiple of 4.8x 2022E EBITDA. Read More >>