July personal income and spending were reported this morning. Since real personal income drives one important election model, I have been waiting to see if July would reflect the end of the emergency Congressional assistance. It didn't.
Real personal income rose less than 0.1% in July. While it is down by -6% from April, it is up a huge 7.1% from July 2019. Real disposable and per capita income show similar trajectories:
April represented the $1,200 stimulus checks as well as the Congressional emergency assistance. The former was one time only; the latter ended at