2025-06-03 05:45:00 ET

Summary

• The commonly used definition of a technical recession is consecutive quarter-over-quarter contractions in real GDP.
• The global composite output index, a bellwether for the trend in global real GDP growth, lost ground in the first quarter of 2025 even before April’s reciprocal tariff-related turmoil.
• April’s sub-surveys of expected business conditions generally deteriorated, pointing to further weakness ahead, with geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs cited as prime concerns.

The commonly used definition of a “technical” recession is consecutive quarter-over-quarter contractions in real GDP. Some countries, including the US, have more specific definitions, generally including criteria based around the duration, depth, and breadth of the output losses....

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