2024-05-03 15:24:00 ET
Summary
- The FOMC has been consistent in their messaging of data-dependency (albeit, erring on the side of caution) and key leading indicators still suggest that the evolution of inflation and economic data over the year may yet be supportive of a policy pivot.
- While OER has been noisy over 1Q, other leading indicators of shelter inflation all suggest that there is a significant amount of improvement to come in the year ahead.
- The leading indicators suggest that there will be greater evidence of lagged policy transmission in the U.S. over the remainder of the year.
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Shelter Out Of Place: Why It's Too Soon To Write Off Policy Cuts In 2024