2023-04-28 20:39:05 ET
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SVCBF)
Q1 2023 Results Conference Call
April 28, 2023 04:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Anders Edholm - SVP Communications
Ulf Larsson - CEO
Andreas Ewertz - CFO
Conference Call Participants
Robin Santavirta - Carnegie
Johannes Grunselius - DNB
Oskar Lindström - Danske Bank
Linus Larsson - SEB
Martin Melbye - ABG
Cole Hathorn - Jefferies
Andrew Jones - UBS
Presentation
Anders Edholm
Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's first quarter results for 2023. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions afterwards. Over to you, Ulf.
Ulf Larsson
Thank you for that, Anders. And also from my side, good morning, and warm welcome to the presentation of the result for the first quarter 2023.
And when I summarize the first quarter, I can state that we have delivered a stable result, not least driven by profitable growth in Renewable Energy, but also the resilience against the increase in wood costs. The later, of course, due to our relative high degree of self-sufficiency in our wood supply.
EBITDA increased by 4% in comparison with the fourth quarter last year, up to SEK 2.055 billion. And our EBITDA margin increased to 43% for the first quarter. However, we see a continued weak demand in solid wood products, pulp and also containerboard. Prices for solid wood products have bottomed out and will start to increase in the second quarter, while prices for containerboard and pulp are still decreasing. When I compare the first quarter this year with the first quarter last year, I can note that the sales decreased with 4%, and that is mainly due to price.
EBITDA decreased with 21% during the same period due to decreasing prices in solid wood products and containerboard. On the positive side, we have had a profitable growth in Renewable Energy and also good cost control, and we will come back to that later.
Turning over to some financial KPIs related to the first quarter. As just mentioned, our EBITDA increased 4% in comparison with last quarter, reached a little bit over SEK 2 billion for the first quarter this year. And that corresponds to a 43% EBITDA margin. Our industrial return on capital employed came out on 31% calculated as the average for the last 12 months. And the figure for the first quarter was around 17%.
The leverage is stable around 1, despite our almost finalized large ongoing investment projects in Obbola, Ortviken, Bollsta and also in Gothenburg. We continue to finance all our investments, including strategic projects, with our operating cash flow.
So I will now make some comments for each segment, and I'll start with the forest. During the first quarter, we have had a stable supply of wood to our industries. In general, we can note the continued high demand of wood raw materials and, by that, also continued increase in wood prices, as you can see in the graph in the bottom left.
When we compare the first quarter '23 with the first quarter '22, pulpwood prices have increased by almost 30%, somewhat more for birch and somewhat less for conifer. Corresponding figure for sawlogs is an increase around 10%. Pulpwood prices in the Baltics are slightly down compared to Q4 last year but substantially higher, of course, in comparison with Q1 2022.
When we compare Q1 '23 with Q1 last year, sales were up 14% and EBITDA was up 33%, mainly due to higher prices, but also due to higher harvesting level in our own forest. We can finally note the continued high interest to purchase forest land in Sweden but also in the Baltics.
Then I turn over to business area of wood. And in general, we have a continued weak market for solid wood products. Building activities remained on an okay level during the first quarter, but new housing starts are in the decreasing trend, as we all know. Anyway, we cannot reduce supply. And in most markets, customers have finalized destocking and started to buy again.
And SCA has, I must say, maintained a normal delivery during the first quarter. Price levels for solid-wood products hit the bottom already in Q4 '22. And as earlier communicated, we estimated unchanged prices between Q4 and the first quarter this year. And that was also realized, as you can see in the graph bottom left.
The stock of sawn woods is relatively low in all markets today and the supply will not increase, and we also now see a seasonally stronger consumption of wood in Q2 despite an unsecured economic macro environment. My best guess for the coming quarter is that we will see a solid price increase with high single digit in percent. Sales and EBITDA was substantially down due to price and cost of raw material when we compare Q1 '23 with same quarter last year. Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is in relation to the average for the past 5 years described at the top left on this slide. And we note that inventory volumes are on somewhat high level to some extent due to the Finnish harbor strike.
Anyway, SCA has maintained normal deliveries, as I said, during the first quarter. And by that, we have a balanced and, I would say, a normal stock.
As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmills production has been on a rather normal level. Outside the Nordic countries, we've seen production curtailments, not the least in Germany and also in Canada. And today, we cannot see any Russian or Belarusian wood in the European market, which also helps the balance, of course.
When looking at the diagram to the top right, we can note that the price peaked in the third quarter '21 on a historically high level. Prices have come down substantially since then. And at the same time, the prices for sawlogs have increased build. Of course, a major negative effect on the profitability in this business. So over to pulp.
First, I'm happy to say that our CTMP expansion continues according to plan regarding production ramp-up and also sales growth. Sales was up 20% when comparing the first quarter this year with Q1 '22, while EBITDA was in line with last year. And we can note price/volume and currency on the positive side in this comparison, while high wood raw material costs were on the negative side. We saw a weak demand for pulp during the first quarter. Europe and U.S. were soft during the whole quarter, while China started up okay but ended with very low demand. Coming into the second quarter now, we still see a slow demand in -- not the least in China, but we are now waiting for new price level to be established in China. And by that, I believe that the trade will start again.
The European PIX price peaked in September, October last year, close to USD 1,500 per tonne. And since then, we have seen decline in prices for all pulp rates in all markets. And the price for deliveries to Europe in April is USD 1,340 per tonne.
We expect pulp prices to continue down during the second quarter. In China, prices are decreasing rapidly, and will probably reach the bottom already in Q2. High-cost producers no longer cover the cost and, therefore, we don't expect prices to stay on this level very long. I mean, already today, we have -- we see a weakening supply to China from -- not the least from Canadian producers.
In Europe and U.S., prices are falling slower. And here, I expect prices to bottom out in the second half of this year.
For SCA, weak demand and decreasing prices have been mitigated by high level of contracted volumes on our core markets and also by the high exposure to the tissue segment. As you can see in the graph, inventories for both hardwood and softwood pulp still are on the high side. Then I move over to containerboard and the successful start-up was affecting the production volume and costs in Obbola negative in the first quarter this year when comparing with last year. But long term, of course, this will create a good foundation for a highly successful project.
The new recovered fiber line, which is a necessity to reach full capacity normalized is progressing according to plan and is planned to be ready in the first half of 2023. And as earlier communicated, we would expect to reach full capacity in Obbola in 2026. Sales was down 9% due to lower prices, while EBITDA was down 41%, mainly due to lower prices, but also due to the effects of an early start-up of the new paper machine, short term causing higher costs. This project is any way a little bit unique by the fact that we have delivered a strong cash flow throughout the project duration. Box demand has continued to decline in Q1, mainly related to lower retail sales and destocking effects.
European demand of kraftliner have decreased to a corresponding degree by around 15% in the first quarter this year in comparison with the first quarter last year. However, we now hear signals from customers that destocking effects are leveling out. We see a stronger amount in the second half of this year. On the other hand, there is additional supply on test liner coming on stream in the next quarters, and that will, of course, put some pressure on the supply-demand balance. Brown kraftliner has decreased with EUR 110 to EUR 140 per tonne in the first quarter, depending on region and timing and cumulative since the peak of September '22 with EUR 200 to EUR 230 per tonne.
Kraftliner white top decreased with EUR 95 per tonne in Q1 and cumulative since the peak in September '22 with EUR 125 per tonne.
We have seen a continued price decline in April for containerboard. Natural gas prices have come down sharply from the peak in August last year, which eases the cost pressure for energy-intensive industries like testliner. We estimate that prices in Q2 is approaching breakeven levels for high-cost producers and, therefore, will be leveling out supported by production curtailments. Availability of OCC is still good because of historical high supply of corrugated boxes and lower current demand of testliner. Today's price has increased a bit and is around EUR 8 per tonne, which is almost EUR 120 per tonne lower than peak in July '22.
Since we are seeing demand decline to level off and stronger demand in second half of the year, we can assume that also steel prices will continue to increase based on limited supply.
So finally, I'm happy to, for the first time, present Renewable Energy as a separate segment, and we start this quarter with a strong profitable growth and higher prices in comparison with some -- same period last year. In general, we have had a strong market development during '22 in solid biofuels. Q1 this year has been warmer than normal in Europe and also in Sweden. By that, stock levels in Europe for fossil fuels are high and inventories have increased. Biofuel prices has a downward trend from the second half of the fourth quarter last year.
Anyway, we estimate the continued relative strong biofuel market in '23 due to an expected shortage long and midterm.
In wind power, we took our first step in realizing our revised wind strategy by the acquisition of Skogberget wind farm at the end of last year. Land lease agreements on SCA land reached 7.8 terawatt hours in Q1, which is in line with our communicated plan.
The result for wind power was substantially better Q1 this year in comparison with Q4 last year, and that is mainly driven by Skogberget wind farm but also due to higher land lease revenues.
In liquid biofuels, we see an improved result, mainly driven by higher green premiums for CTO or crude tall oil. The biorefinery in Gothenburg is under construction, and we have a planned commissioning during the fourth quarter this year.
So by that, I hand over to you, Andreas.
Andreas Ewertz
Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the income statement for the first quarter. Net sales declined 4% to SEK 4.8 billion, mainly driven by lower prices in wood and containerboard. EBITDA reached over SEK 2 billion despite the weaker market, driven by growth in Renewable Energy and higher results in our Forest division. EBITDA margin declined to 43%.
Depreciation increased to SEK 460 million due to the activation of the new paper machine in Obbola. The EBIT margin declined to 43%. And financial items totaled minus SEK 60 million. With an effective tax rate around 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 1.2 billion or SEK 1.7 per share.
On the next slide, we have the financial development per segment. Let's start with Forest segment to the left. Net sales grew to SEK 1.9 billion, driven by increased volumes and higher prices compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA increased to SEK 780 million, where seasonally lower harvest from SCA's own forest was offset by higher prices.
In Woods, prices have bottomed out after several quarters with declining prices. In Q1, we had a positive mix effect which increased EBITDA up to SEK 120 million, corresponding to a margin of 10%. In Pulp, lower prices were offset by higher volumes and a continued high share of deliveries to core markets. Net sales increased to SEK 1.9 billion, and EBITDA was in line with the previous quarter at SEK 590 million, corresponding to a margin of 32%.
In Containerboard, kraftliner prices continued to decrease. Net sales decreased slightly to SEK 1.6 billion and EBITDA totaled SEK 450 million, corresponding to a margin of 29%. The planned maintenance stop in Obbola had a negative impact of SEK 21 million. In Renewable Energy, strong growth and higher prices increased EBITDA to SEK 180 million, corresponding to a margin of 35%. EBITDA was positively impacted by the acquired wind farm in Markbygden and higher tall oil prices.
On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q1 last year and Q1 this year. Prices declined 9%, driven by lower prices in Wood and Containerboard. Volumes declined 1%, where higher volumes in Pulp was offset by a weaker wood market and the startup of the new paper machine in Obbola. And lastly, currency had a positive impact of 6%, bringing net sales to SEK 4.8 billion.
Moving on to the EBITDA bridge, and starting to the left. Price/mix had a negative impact of SEK 555 million, again driven by lower prices in wood and containerboard. Higher cost for wood raw material and chemicals had a negative impact of SEK 140 million, while energy had a positive impact of SEK 31 million, which really shows our high sales efficiency in both energy and wood raw material. We had a positive impact from currency and a negative impact from higher fuel prices and start-up costs. In total, EBITDA decreased 21% to approximately SEK 2.1 billion, corresponding to a margin of 43%.
We continued to have a strong operating cash flow of SEK 1.2 billion for the quarter. And this means that we are continuing to fund our strategic investments with operating cash flow.
Looking at the balance sheet. The value of the Forest asset increased to SEK 99 billion. Working capital stood at SEK 4 billion. And total capital employed increased to SEK 107 billion. Net debt increased to SEK 11 billion, corresponding to 1.2x EBITDA, and the increase was driven by the dividend of SEK 1.8 billion.
Equity was in line with the previous quarter at SEK 96 billion. And net debt to equity was 12%.
Thank you. With that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf.
Ulf Larsson
Thank you for that, Andreas. Well, just to summarize the first quarter, I mean, we have delivered a strong quarter, 43% EBITDA margin, driven not least by profitable growth in Renewable Energy, but also, I would say, resilience against increasing wood costs.
So by that, I think that we can open up. So operator, please open up for questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
[Operator Instructions] We'll now take our first question from Robin at Carnegie.
Robin Santavirta
The first question I have is on the Wood segment. Clearly, a quite good performance in a very challenging market for you, guys. How should we expect costs going forward? I just typed the numbers in my model and it seems that the sort of costs per tonne is actually clearly down Q on Q whereas I believe that log prices were still moving up. What is the reason for the lower costs in the quarter?
And how should we expect those costs going forward in the Wood segment?
Ulf Larsson
If we start with the cost for logs. I mean, we see that log prices will -- they have increased, which is a little bit of a surprise, at least for me. But I think also they will continue to increase during at least the second quarter. So I don't know if that was the answer, Andreas, maybe you should...
Andreas Ewertz
Costs for -- well, compared to Q4 when a positive mix effect. And we also had some higher income from the byproducts from the sawdust, et cetera, from our sawmills.
Robin Santavirta
All right. I understand. And in terms of demand, I guess, supply is now sort of declining somewhat, and you explained the inventories are on a healthy level. But what do you see in terms of demand? And if that is a bit improving, where is it coming from?
Sort of what kind of markets and what kind of segment is showing improvement?
Ulf Larsson
I don't think that we should expect an increase in demand. I mean you have a seasonally positive effect in the second quarter and that, yes, normally also at least in the beginning of the third quarter. So that is, of course, on the positive side.
When it comes to the balance, I think that -- I mean, we now see curtailments in Central Europe, not least Germany, but we also see them in Canada. As you saw in the statistics, I believe that the production in Sweden and Finland are on, I would say, a normal level. But of course, if we see a continued increase in log prices, that means either increasing prices for solid-wood products or curtailments. Because as you can see in our many producers, they are more or less on a breakeven level.
But the underlying demand, I mean, that is not very encouraging. I think this situation will remain for a while. But still, I think that it is a healthy balance just now. The destocking is already done. And the customers, they have started to buy solid-wood products again.
Robin Santavirta
And the final question I have is related to the Forest segment where you have the operative earnings really strong in Q1. If we exclude revaluation, you're clearly up sort of year-on-year, higher at least than I expected. I understand that the log prices and pulpwood prices are up, but I also believe costs sort of are quite clearly up. Is there anything exceptional in the quarter? Is this essentially the operating level we should expect going forward if logs and pulpwood prices remain at this level?
Ulf Larsson
Yes. I mean, we don't give forecast. But again, I think we have seen an increased volume from our own forest, which is good. And I mean, that is according to what we have said. We shall in a 5-year period go from 4.4 million cubic meters up to around 5.5.
And that we will do, of course. And we also -- we have a rather balanced supply of resources into the forest sector just now. It has been for a while hard to get access to harvest this and so on. But we feel that, that is in a better position just now.
And so again, if we can keep up the volume harvested on our own land and also have rather good cost control in the forest, I mean that will give us increased result as prices both for pulp logs and sawlogs will continue to come up a little bit further, I would say.
Andreas Ewertz
Yes. In terms of your question, we had no one-offs in the Forest division during the quarter.
Operator
We'll now move on to our next question from Johannes at DNB.
Johannes Grunselius
I would like to ask you about the new business division here, Renewable Energy, was a very nice results. Anything unusual in that result? And how do you foresee the coming quarters? I got the impression that you sounded that -- it sounded that it was sort of very much the normal we should expect perhaps. Could you comment on that?
Ulf Larsson
Yes. I mean I would say it's the normal. But again, also in the energy business, you have a seasonal effect. So of course, the fourth quarter and the first quarter should be stronger than 2 and 3 due to energy prices. So that is quite easy to understand.
But I mean, again, step-by-step, we increase the capacity on SCA land, and that will give an increased income from the lease. We have had a good start in the wind farm in Skogberget that we acquired. Of course, when energy prices come down in the second quarter and the third quarter, the income will be reduced a little bit.
We see a very positive development for CTU, as I said. And we are also positive because of the fact that we will start up the first biorefinery in the fourth quarter this year and we are really excited about that. So I think that we will see a healthy growth in this area. But of course, from quarter-to-quarter, you can see some difference due to seasonal effects.
Johannes Grunselius
Okay. Okay. On that subject, on the new biofuel plant in Gothenburg, how much will that impact this business? I mean, I know you are 50-50 owner of that plant. Could you just remind us about the ramp-up and what kind of earnings contribution you foresee there?
Andreas Ewertz
I can take that one. We showed a guidance on our capital market days, and with the trend prices, we expect the biorefinery in Gothenburg to contribute with around SEK 200 million in EBITDA when -- once fully ramped up. Currently, we have had stronger prices but during -- if you look at trend prices, we expect around SEK 200 million.
Johannes Grunselius
And the ramp-up for that?
Andreas Ewertz
Expect to start up at the end of the year. Then the ramp-up will take some time, but our biorefinery is usually quick compared to, for example, a kraftliner mill or a pulp mill. But expect some time for ramp up as well.
Johannes Grunselius
Yes. Then I have a question also on wood products. You gave a pretty firm indication on how we should expect your prices. Q1, we also talked about cost. But what about volumes?
Any changes there for the coming quarters compared to Q1?
Ulf Larsson
No, I think we will see price increases between 5% and 10%, and I think that the volume should be normal. I mean, the destocking is already done. And the inventory level among customers are on the low side, and they need to buy in order to run their operations. And we're also, at least in SCA, we have a rather normal stock, and it's also well balanced when it comes to qualities and so on. So I mean, I think normal.
Johannes Grunselius
[Configured] 500,000 cubic or something.
Andreas Ewertz
I think we have, compared to the first quarter, we also have a stronger seasonal effect during December. But in terms of summer volumes, as we've said, we expect a normal quarter.
Operator
Thank you. We'll move on to our next question from Oskar at Danske Bank.
Oskar Lindström
First question is on pulp. Are you seeing any indications of production curtailments due to low prices? Or is it only because of sort of wood scarcity, which is I suppose the situation that we had in British Columbia at the beginning of the year. For example, are you seeing any indications of production curtailments from pulp producers in Continental Europe? That's my first question.
My second question, if I may, is on Containerboard. How large were the negative impacts of the -- on costs related to the startup in this quarter? And how should we expect them to sort of dissipate? And when will the recovered paper line start up and what would be the impact of that on costs roughly?
And my third question, if I may, is on wood availability. I mean you and one of your peers in the industry have been talking quite a bit about sort of tight wood market and it doesn't appear to be only cyclical, it's also a structural issue. Do you see this limiting your ability to expand your industrial operations in your current industrial footprint in Sweden long term? And yes, those are my three questions.
Ulf Larsson
Yes, and then we see if we can remember them. But we start with the pulp and curtailments. Well, I would say that, at least what you see in Canada and some areas, that is also due to the fact that the Chinese prices. I mean, as I said just now, you don't have a trade in China. And by that, prices will come down rapidly and sharply.
So I think they will end up somewhere where we have a breakeven situation. But I think that it is also due to profitability that we see curtailments now. And that's the reason also why I think that we will reach the bottom in the second quarter in China. And then I think the trade will start again. And that will, of course, be good.
In Europe and U.S., I mean, we have seen also decrease in prices from 1,500 down to 1,340 now in April. And I think which is -- I mean, if you look at the results that we have in Pulp, which is quite okay, I mean I think that the price decrease will continue for a while, but I think it will level out in the second half of this year. But of course, as always, I mean, it is a question about supply/demand. But still, we feel that demand from at least the tissue sector, where we are mainly focused on, is still okay. And is still okay also in Europe and U.S. where we have our main markets. So that was the first one. Then we can take wood availability, and then I hand over to Andreas for the containerboard question here. I mean, well, it is a tight situation. And one reason is, of course, that Russian and Belarusian wood is no longer come into Europe, and that is around 10 million cubic meters per year.
Another thing for -- at least impacting us in the northern part will be when Sveaskog is reducing the harvesting level. They have said 1.5 million cubic meter in Norrbotten and Västerbotten. So that we will, of course, at least regionally have an effect.
I mean, for us, being the biggest private forest owner in Europe, we are not afraid of the wood supply. As you know, we also have an ongoing program in the Baltics to buy more forest land. We have done 70,000 hectares out of -- we set the target for 5 years over 100,000 hectares, and we are absolutely in line with that plan. So I think we -- as you know, we try to balance what we have in the forest with what we have in the industry and what we have in terms of energy supply. So that's more or less our business model, which we find is very successful, not the least in the time that we have just now.
But of course, wood will be an issue for many companies going forward. And if you don't control the supply chain, that will, of course, cause some challenges. I think I hand over to you, Andreas, for Containerboard.
Andreas Ewertz
Yes. For the first question then, if you look at Containerboard, recovered fiber line will begin operation at the end of the second quarter. So we expect to have a positive volume impact on the second half of the year. In terms of start-up costs, we have some start-up costs which is normal sense. We are trimming the new paper machine.
So if we find something that's not working perfectly, we take it down and we trim that and start up again. You have a bit of extra cost, but nothing significantly. And that's expected to continue for several more quarters. But they've done a fantastic job in the project to keep a very strong cash flow for the entire project and during the startup.
Operator
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Linus Larsson at SEB.
Linus Larsson
On variable costs, sector peers have given quite different views on the near-term outlook. So I wonder if you could please share your views, I guess, in Pulp and Containerboard segment as to chemicals, logistics and maybe the aggregate of variable costs Q2 on Q1, please?
Andreas Ewertz
Yes. So if you look at the cost, if you look at our largest cost, which is wood raw material, that's going to continue to increase during the second quarter. If you look at other direct cost, chemicals, they have peaked. If we look at OCC prices, they have bottomed out. I think they will start to increase during the second half of the year.
Oil prices have gone down. So it's a mix. And if you look at the fixed cost, I mean, that inflation is still driving that but after the mix. But the main wood cost is still going up. But here, we have an advantage of getting 50% back in the Forest division.
Linus Larsson
And logistics?
Andreas Ewertz
Logistics has also peaked, so that started to come down slightly.
Linus Larsson
Okay. Great. And then maybe also just jumping back to Renewable Energy. When we look at Q1 EBITDA figure, I wonder if you could maybe break that down a bit for us. How much is from the new wind farm?
How much is CTO? How much is pellets lease revenues, et cetera?
Andreas Ewertz
I don't think we have given that amount of details on the segment, but just to give you some flavor, if we start with the wind farm, we produced 63 gigawatt hours in the first quarter. I mean we had a healthy electricity prices. And on top of the prices, you also have quite high prices or rights of origin during the quarter which helped. That you can calculate if you assume 63 gigawatt hours.
And then we had previously guided on lease, that we expect lease income to be around SEK 100 million per year at the end of this year. And then we have a seasonally strong deliveries of pellets during the winter season, especially during Q1 and in Q4.
And then the tall oil prices have continued to increase, as Ulf mentioned. And tall oil we produce around 50,000 tonnes per year.
Linus Larsson
And the tall oil price trend remains positive into the second quarter?
Andreas Ewertz
Yes. I would say the tall oil is usually the oil price plus green premium. And that green premium has been trending up the last several of years. And that will remain in the second quarter. And then it depends how the underlying oil price has developed.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Martin at ABG.
Martin Melbye
Two questions. Could you indicate the EBITDA effect in Q1 from the start-up of the Containerboard and the Pulp mills? And secondly, on the Forest side, you usually have a seasonal pickup in harvesting and also in EBITDA, SEK 100 million up quarter-on-quarter. Will that still be there given that you harvested more in Q1?
Andreas Ewertz
I start with Forest, we have a seasonal uptick in Q2. But as you mentioned, we did a bit more harvesting this quarter. So the delta between Q2 and Q1 will be less than the previous year.
And if we look at the start-up costs, I mean we have some start-up costs, they're not significant. But if you remember the EBITDA bridge I show, we have around SEK 100 million in extra cost. It's not only the start-up costs, it's also higher fuel prices. But let's say, around 50%, 60% of that is higher start-up costs.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] We'll now move on to our next question from Cole Hathorn at Jefferies.
Cole Hathorn
Just following up on the pulpwood dynamics in the Nordic region. I mean, normally, when we see demands come off, we generally get this cost relief for all the end markets of pulp and kraftliner. I'm just wondering, this cycle, with the dynamics of less availability of wood, Russia coming in, should we be effectively thinking that we're not going to get this raw material relief in the Nordic region?
And secondly, what does that mean? Does that benefit someone like yourself with kind of lower cost asset base and we're effectively going to need the lower prices via someone closing capacity in that region is the first question.
And then secondly, if you could give any color on what you're seeing potentially in other regions in Europe around wood prices? Are the dynamics on wood trends different in Central and Eastern Europe? Will they get more relief from wood having traditionally bought less from Russia?
Ulf Larsson
Yes. I mean, first, I don't think that we will see, at least not short or mid-term cost relief. I mean the situation is changed now for the reason I mentioned. Russia, Belarus [indiscernible] is at least 10 million cubic meters. And in addition to that, I mean, we have, at least in the northern part of Sweden, we will have reduced our harvesting level from Sveaskog, the state-owned forest.
So that will -- I think that will remain. And that is also what we see in the market. Because typically, when we have this situation for -- I mean end products in all areas, immediately raw material prices should start to come down and that has not happened.
And what kind of impact will that have? Yes, the first thing is that we will reach the bottom price-wise faster because we will reach breakeven levels faster than we've done in the past. And of course, in that perspective, it is very good to have a good degree of self-sufficiency, which already today can see in the result of SCA and also some of our colleagues being in the same situation. So that is, of course, positive. I think that it is, if not a global market of for wood raw materials, but many companies, they are in the Baltics trying to buy wood in that area.
We have seen the spruce beetle disease in the big parts of Central Europe for a couple of years now, and that will also give some limitations, I think, in terms of wood supply in Central Europe.
So I think it will be a rather scarce situation for raw materials for a while now, and that will, of course, impact the price. And by that, we will reach breakeven levels faster. And that's the reason also why I think that we will reach the bottom in -- yes, in more or less all markets during this year.
And of course, if you're in addition to that, if you have well-invested assets and low cost, that will give you a better position, that's for sure.
Andreas Ewertz
And we have seen that and if you look at our Wood division, that the high wood log cost in Central Europe is driving the price increases. And they have basically 0 margins for the other -- 10% EBITDA margin this quarter. You already seen the effect there...
Ulf Larsson
Yes, have we lost line, or...
Operator
You're back now, thank you.
Ulf Larsson
We're back, thank you. Was that the clear answer?
Cole Hathorn
Yes. Sorry, I just lost the last sentence from Andreas.
Andreas Ewertz
No, I just said, we've seen that the prices have bottomed out in wood because of the high log costs in Europe, while we have a lower cost here in Sweden or on self efficiency, which means that we still have a healthy margin at Wood division of 10% while other continental players are struggling.
Cole Hathorn
Perfect. And then just one on kraftliner. You called that you're starting to see a bit of an improvement in orders and destocking coming towards an end. Just wondering if you can just expand on that. Any color that you're getting from your customers?
And any seasonal effects we should be thinking about from kind of an agricultural season or anything like that, that could support a bit of demand for kraftliner from here through to the rest of the year?
Ulf Larsson
I mean, again, maybe I wasn't really clear. I mean we lost 50% of the consumption in the first quarter, and we will still have a low consumption, I think, of kraftliner. That is very much related to the e-commerce. And I mean, we don't see any improvement in that area.
But again, as you say, I mean, we have seen -- started to see destocking effects among customers. We also -- I think Andreas mentioned that, that OCC prices has already started to come up. I mean, we were down to EUR 65 per tonne and now it's up to EUR 80 per tonne as the supply of all boxes will be reduced now. That will, I think, cause some extra pressure on OCC prices. So that will come in the autumn.
And then again, what will happen with energy prices and so on? But I think we will see continued decrease in prices for a while. But my best belief is that we will see the bottom in the second half of this year, driven, I think, by higher cost structure for test liner producers.
On the other hand, we also know that we will have some additional test liner capacity coming onstream now, so that will impact the supply-demand balance in a slightly different way. So I mean it will still be -- it will be a tight year, but I think we will see the bottom this year, at least.
Operator
Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from Andrew Jones at UBS.
Andrew Jones
Just a question on the FX factor. I mean that was clearly supportive, I guess, in the results we've just seen. Can you just give us a bit of a steer as to how you expect ForEx impact the second quarter and just talk us through how that dynamic might work.
Andreas Ewertz
No, we have in our report that we have hedged from 70% to 80% of our currency the coming 2 quarters. You have the exact hedges in our report. But we don't expect any significant difference between Q1 -- in Q1, we're fairly similar.
Andrew Jones
You mean between Q1 and Q2?
Andreas Ewertz
Yes, Q1 and Q2, yes.
Operator
We have no more questions in queue. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our follow-up question from Cole Hathorn at Jefferies.
Cole Hathorn
Just coming back on to the ability to harvest and manage your wood costs from your forest. Should -- how have you changed your harvesting plans given the wood cost dynamics, if at all? Should we expect kind of your own forest harvesting to be elevated near term to make sure you don't have to pay any higher spot wood prices?
Ulf Larsson
Yes, it's a good question. And I mean we are in a phase just now, as I said. I mean, we said a couple of years ago that we should go from 4.4 million cubic meter per year to up to 5.5 million cubic meter [ per year ], and that we will do. And that is, of course, due to the fact that we have treated the forest in a good way, so by that potential is higher.
Normally, we try to keep the harvesting level in the forest at the same level from year-to-year. I mean, in good times, you always need more cash. In bad times, you also need more cash. So I think it's good to keep some kind of a straight line in that perspective.
And another perspective is, of course, how to get access to good entrepreneurs to keep the cost level in the harvesting operations. And that has been -- that's not the secret. I mean it has been a challenge to get access to good people to come to the forest and do the harvesting operations. Just now, it's a little bit better and maybe some resources coming back from Russia and so on. So I mean we have a little bit better balance in that perspective.
We have also employed some more people and we have brought some more harvesters inside SCA just in order to secure the wood supply in a better way.
But to be honest, no tactical things in this area. I mean we have a fantastic situation where we can get at least 50% of what we need from our own forest, and we try to stick to that line in good times and in bad times.
Operator
Thank you. There are no further questions in the queue. I will now hand it back to your host for closing remarks. Thank you.
Anders Edholm
Thank you for joining us today, and welcome back on July 21 for the half yearly results. Thank you for joining us.
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Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SVCBF) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript