Macro outlook and tactical asset allocation
Global growth below trend and decelerating
The global economy is rapidly decelerating, and we expect all major regions and countries around the world to grow below their trend rate of economic growth over the next few quarters, and at least through the first half of 2020. For the past six months, our macro regime framework, “Dynamic Asset Allocation through the Business Cycle”, has indicated that the global business cycle is entering a contraction, defined as growth below trend and decelerating. Our proprietary leading