Let's look at the bullish economic argument. As signs of weaker growth increased in 4Q18 and 1Q19, central banks became more dovish. Indian, Australian, and Russian rates are all lower; the Fed and BOE have signaled a more dovish tone. This rallied equity markets, which bolstered sentiment and steadied activity. Although it's decreased a bit, service sector activity is still positive. Unemployment remains low in the US, Japan, and the UK. Yesterday, I noted that Cleveland Fed President Mester has argued we're simply experiencing a weak patch similar to that which occurred in 2016. The