A month behind schedule, Q4 GDP sure did disappoint. I don't mean that it was disastrously weak, rather it came in right down the middle, benefiting neither camp. The BEA's not preliminary but not quite second revised GDP estimate for Q4 2018 was 2.55617% (seasonally adjusted compounded annual rate) above Q3. Not strong enough to dispel every growing worry, at the same time not weak enough to fully confirm them.
The BEA, in making everyone wait an additional month, settles nothing.
What is now established, though, is a mathematical fact. The last eleven years have