- In addition to my array of systems of long and short leading indicators, I also have an alternative, fundamentals-based “consumer nowcast”.
- This system looks at the array of devices consumers have at their disposal to assist increased spending.
- When those systems are all closed off, consumers have no choice but to pull back, and a recession typically quickly follows.
- Several of those systems are on the verge of yellow flags, but others are wide open to consumers.
- As a result, no consumer-driven recession is near at hand.
For further details see:
The Consumer Nowcast: The State Of American Households And Recession