2023-04-24 12:47:00 ET
Summary
- Rising fears of recession did little to alter the trajectory of the S&P 500 (SPX) during the third week of April 2023. The index ended the week at 4133.52, down just 0.1% from where it closed the previous week.
- Earlier in the week, signs that China's efforts to stimulate its economy were finally gaining traction buoyed the U.S. stock market.
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 held steady at +2.5% over the past week.
Rising fears of recession did little to alter the trajectory of the S&P 500 ( SPX ) during the third week of April 2023. The index ended the week at 4133.52 , down just 0.1% from where it closed the previous week.
It didn't start off that way. Earlier in the week, signs that China's efforts to stimulate its economy were finally gaining traction buoyed the U.S. stock market. But by week's end, investors returned their focus to the domestic situation in the U.S. economy, with the net effect of leaving the S&P 500 index just slightly lower.
That action, or lack thereof, can be seen in the latest update to the alternative futures chart. We find the level of the S&P 500 is just a bit below the midpoint of the redzone forecast range we added for last week's update .
Our reading of why stock prices behaved as they did in the week that was is drawn directly from the week's market-moving headlines. Here's our summary of the new information investors had to absorb during the past week:
Monday, 17 April 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Bigger stimulus still developing in China:
- Eurozone government minions, ECB minions claim they're worried about inflation:
- Wall St ends higher; investors await earnings, Fed cues
Tuesday, 18 April 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Some Fed minions looking for bigger rate hikes:
- More signs of economic recovery developing in China:
- BOJ minions pledge they'll keep never-ending stimulus alive:
- ECB minions willing to leave size of rate hike to chance:
- S&P 500 ekes out gain as tech supports, J&J, Goldman disappoint
Wednesday, 19 April 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions see economy plodding along:
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- ECB minions worried about inflation have more inflation, credit squeeze to deal with:
- Dow dips, S&P 500 stable after medtech gains, Netflix drag
Thursday, 20 April 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions looking for one more rate hike:
- China central bank minions claim they're not worried about deflation:
- BOJ minions think all is economically well in 7 of 9 regions of Japan, thinking about changing up never-ending stimulus sometime later:
- ECB minions want more rate hikes before stopping, don't trust inflation is over in Eurozone:
- Wall St slides after gloomy earnings led by Tesla
Friday, 21 April 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions looking forward to one more rate hike, blame loophole for their missing signs of Silicon Valley Bank ( SIVBQ ) failure, not so sure of their next steps:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions see less economic shrinkage, broadening inflation, not going to change never-ending stimulus, say all's good with financial system:
- ECB minions thinking about keeping rate hikes going:
- Wall St posts slim gain ahead of big earnings week
Monday, 24 April 2023
- Late breaking bonus headline!
- Analysis-China rebound buoys hopes for stronger-than-expected US, Europe earnings
- This analysis follows up the factors we observed boosting U.S. stock prices in the earlier part of the preceding week. Given its focus, we thought it made sense to add it to this week's roundup of market-moving headlines as a late breaking bonus headline.
- Analysis-China rebound buoys hopes for stronger-than-expected US, Europe earnings
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hike the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter-point to a target range of 5.00-5.25% at its upcoming meeting on 3 May (2023-Q2). After that, the FedWatch tool anticipates a series of quarter-point rate cuts starting from 1 November (2023-Q4) and continuing at six-to-twelve-week intervals through the CME FedWatch tool's available forecast period, which extends through 25 September 2024 (2024-Q3).
For further details see:
The S&P 500 Drifts Slightly Lower As Recession Fears Rise