- We think that last year's US recession ended in June plus/minus one month, making it the shortest recession in US history. The latest data indicate that the recovery is well and truly intact.
- The ISM NOI leads Industrial Production (IP), so it isn't surprising that the year-over-year percentage change in IP has experienced a rapid rebound from its Q2-2020 trough.
- The performances of leading and coincident economic indicators show that we are well into the boom phase of the boom-bust cycle, meaning that the economic landscape remains bullish for industrial commodities and bearish for gold.
For further details see:
The U.S. Economy Is Well Into The Boom Phase