In my recent research note on COVID-19 I noted two potential scenarios:
- Short and painful. Basically, 6 months of lockdown with a modestly fast recovery (~15 months).
- Short-ish and painful. Basically, 12-18 months of lockdown with devastating economic pain and a much slower recovery (24+ months).¹
Case 1 happens if social distancing is working, herd immunity is building, treatments are improving, warm weather helps and we can stave off the virus long enough for a vaccine to be developed before the next flu season.
Case 2 happens if the virus turns out to mutate