2024-04-21 06:15:00 ET
Summary
- First quarter GDP and March PCE reports could lead to higher rates, a stronger dollar, and a decline in the stock market.
- Anecdotal evidence suggests that the estimates for GDP and PCE may be too low, indicating potential upside surprises.
- Stronger data could reduce expectations of rate cuts and lead to a tightening of financial conditions, impacting volatility and credit spreads.
Two significant economic reports on Thursday and Friday — the first quarter GDP and the March PCE report — could blindside the market, sending rates and the dollar soaring, and the stock market reeling. Better-than-expected reports can push 2-year rates back to 5.25%, potentially wiping out any hopes of rate cuts in 2024. They could also have put murmurs of rate hikes back into the conversation....
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This Week's GDP And PCE Reports May Bring More Pain To The Market