2024-07-05 15:05:00 ET
Summary
- The US unemployment rate in June ticked up to 4.1%.
- Canada lost 1400 jobs in June, versus consensus expectations for a 25,000 gain, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.4% from 6.2% in May.
- Government bonds are taking the over on central bank unemployment estimates, with prices rallying sharply to end the week.
- Disproportionately negative economic surprises in the last couple of months have increased the odds of central bank rate cuts in 2024.
The US unemployment rate in June ticked up to 4.1% (from 4% in May, red line below since 2021, and 70 basis points above the 3.4% cycle low in 2022). Full-time job creation fell to a 39-month low and part-time job creation reached a 33-month-high, while April and May job estimates were revised lower....
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Treasuries See Recession-Style Employment Trends, Stocks Should Too