The US recession warnings are flying every which way lately in the wake of an inverted yield curve. The spread on the 10-year less 3-month yields, in particular, has unleashed a wave of predictions that a new downturn is near. But some analysts point out that another widely followed spread - 10-year less 2-year yields - is still positive, albeit modestly so. What's an informed investor to do? Wait for both spreads to confirm a recession forecast before betting the farm on contraction.
To be clear, The Capital Spectator recommends looking beyond yield curves in