Retailers reach peak sales during the holiday season and relatively weak turnover in the subsequent period. They are aware and well prepared for this cyclicality. A similar relationship holds for the business cycle. Although the pattern fluctuates less regularly, business cycles unfolded since modern record-keeping and probably even before that. Business cycles are among the most reliable recurring patterns.
Evidence that several degrees of trends are coming to an end builds up. Our macro outlook shows that the global economy enters into a stage that was historically at the epicenter of tipping into a recession.