By James Knightley, Chief International Economist
US durable goods orders are an important signal of what is going on in corporate America and unfortunately, the recent readings haven't been encouraging. Headline orders were firmer than expected, rising 0.2%, but we focus on the so-called core reading - non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft. This obviously strips out the two big swing (volatile) components of aircraft and defence and showed a decline of 0.2% month-on-month after a flat reading of July. As the chart below shows, this points to investment in equipment falling outright in 4Q19.