By James Knightley, Chief International Economist
Intensifying trade war fears and an inventory overhang are weighing on the manufacturing sector. Regional surveys suggest the national ISM manufacturing index will fall below the breakeven 50 level on Monday, which will only heighten fears of recession for the sector.
While markets are hoping that the US and China will settle their differences regarding trade this weekend, the prospect of a deal between Presidents Trump and Xi looks remote. Our trade team expects tariffs to be hiked in coming months. The worry is that recent US data