- The U.S. stock market is significantly more expensive than international peers and, by some metrics, is at its peak valuation.
- At the same time, the U.S. economy was at peak insolvency, with total debt-to-GDP surging last year.
- The total U.S. stock market ETF VTI has had a great track record but may be headed for long-term underperformance compared to international equities.
- Performance in international equities proves that it can take decades for a stock market to recover from a crash; the U.S. is probably not an exception.
- Low individual investor cash levels, peaking margin debt, and a weak Russell 2000 indicate possible near-term downside risk in all U.S. equities.
For further details see:
VTI: Why The U.S. Stock Market Is Headed For A 'Lost Decade'