A number of encouraging economic indicators suggest that the US is recovering from the coronavirus recession that crushed output in the second quarter. But deciding if a bounce off a very deep bottom is laying the foundation for a robust, sustained recovery remains unclear. There are still too many unknowns lurking to develop a high-confidence forecast for the second half of 2020.
The biggest unknown is the arrival date of an effective vaccine that's widely accepted by the public. Although Russia claims bragging rights as the first nation to formally announce a vaccine, there's plenty