Editor's note: This article was originally published on Sept. 17 by Menzie Chinn here.
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with the US, but - like at the national level - at a decelerating pace.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, August release (brown), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author's forecast based on July release of state and August release of national employment (brown box), in 000s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author's calculations.
I used a first-log-differences specification between