My main writing duties have been cleaning up my manuscript. One of the sections I was looking at discussed how the manuscript text was mainly written by early 2019, and I am not attempting to have it capturing the latest data. One scenario that was obviously embarrassing would be a recession starting before the official publication date.
If we are to believe the conventional interpretation of the yield curve, the odds of that outcome has receded. The figure above shows the 2-/10-year slope, which was only mildly inverted. (The 3-month/10-year slope is probably better as