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2023-03-13 11:20:00 ET Summary Stocks are starting to reflect the economic damage from higher rates - and we see more hikes due to sticky inflation. But expected earnings still look rosy to us. U.S. stocks fell over 4% last week and erased most of their gains for the year, partly ...
2023-03-09 05:45:00 ET Summary Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. Most EM currencies are relatively cheap today. Attractively valued currencies create favorable conditions for EM countries and companies to overcome the challenges amid...
2023-03-08 01:26:00 ET Summary Higher US bond yields and interest-rate expectations have a negative impact on long duration assets, including technology companies. Selected companies in India and Hong Kong which are perceived to have below-average corporate governance have come un...
Summary We think value stocks can outperform as interest rates head higher. Regions and sectors help us find quality within value and growth at a reasonable price. Stocks slid after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed persistently high inflation, reinforcing wh...
Summary Given the forecastable nature of the business cycle, understanding what markets are pricing in from a business cycle perspective is an integral tool to one’s asset allocation decisions. As it stands, stocks as a whole have done a solid job pricing in the growth slowdown. ...
Summary Uncertainty abounds in many key global macroeconomic drivers. However, some of this uncertainty, global growth and geopolitics in particular, may provide a strong tailwind for EM debt. All key global macroeconomic drivers are maximally uncertain – rates, FX, duration, IG ...
Summary Markets are waking up to our expectation of more central bank rate hikes as inflation proves sticky. We go overweight U.S. short-term bonds for income. U.S. two-year Treasury yields jumped near 15-year highs - sparking an equity retreat - as Federal Reserve rate cuts later in th...
Summary Stocks have posted solid gains since they started to recover from last year’s painful crash. Policy trends that drive currency moves and macroeconomic growth differ around the world. Disciplined stock selection can help investors achieve effective global diversificati...
Summary In this post, I will focus on trend lines in profitability at companies in 2022, with the intent of addressing multiple questions. While absolute profits are a useful measure of profitability, you have to scale profits to a common scaling variable, to compare companies of differ...
Summary China’s economic reopening is proceeding swiftly, despite the spike in COVID-19 cases in early January. January witnessed a dramatic shift in the performance of growth stocks, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index posting double-digit returns. Consensus expectat...