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Most major economies are dealing with inflation highs not seen in decades. Market expectations of peak policy rates have declined since June, likely reflecting the significant slowdown in activity as well as recent commodity price declines. Tightening financial conditions as well ...
There have been winners and losers. Some net commodity exporters, like Brazil and South Africa, have seen current accounts improve as commodity prices and revenues have surged. However, for many emerging markets, food security is a growing concern, and net importers are particularly a...
The global economy and financial markets have suffered a dreadful H1 2022, ravaged by a severe commodity shock, strict COVID-19 lockdowns in the world’s second-largest economy, and one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles in recent history. H2 looks equally tough. In it...
The US Dollar has recently shown strength. Inflation is rather high. The geopolitical situation is unstable. This article examines the present state of the American currency and possible effects on it caused by the geopolitical situation. The Dollar is still strong despite h...
Financial markets remained turbulent through Q2 of 2022 as inflationary pressures, interest rate hikes, & ongoing war in Ukraine weighed on investor sentiment, & we've come to accept that the future will likely look different from the past. We now expect U.S. inflation to peak...
HDFC Bank maintains consistently high shareholder returns by having sustainable interest margins and operational efficiency. The bank has consistently maintained a positive ROE that is also significantly above the industry average over the four years ending 2022. HDFC Bank’...
Because past hiking cycles differ in length, speed, and the context in which the tightening took place, we investigate the key differences as well as similarities that are likely to be important drivers of performance. Based on the three previous rate-hiking cycles, we believe there i...
Equities would suffer if rate hikes trigger a growth downturn. Europe has the opportunity to create a more sustainable and more resilient version of itself – replacing high dependencies on Russian energy and shedding the image of an “old” economy by accelerating t...
An investment in Nigeria or Turkey clearly exposes a firm or investor to more risks than an otherwise similar investment in Germany or Canada, but why? While country risk has so many dimensions to it, there is correlation across the many dimensions, with corruption, poor legal protect...
Last quarter, the Asset Allocation Committee adopted an underweight view on global equities and leaned more heavily into cash, commodities and other alternative, diversifying assets. The Committee’s views on real and alternative assets are unchanged this quarter. The Asset ...