Middle East North Africa: Key Themes To Watch In 2025

2025-01-08 05:00:00 ET

Summary

• Sovereign debt stress will continue to impact highly indebted MENA oil-importing countries, including Lebanon and Tunisia.
• We expect Lebanon’s economy to contract sharply following the Israel-Hezbollah escalation in September-November 2024.
• The risk of regional conflict will remain severe, particularly if Iran carries out further large-scale military retaliation against Israel, which we assess is increasingly unlikely given the weakening of Iran and its regional allies and proxies.
• Saudi Arabia and the UAE have outlined economic development targets to expand their technology sectors via investments in semiconductor and AI capability.

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