Should Canadians Buy Gold Right Now?

2026-02-11 20:45:00 ET

Gold looks tempting right now, but it is not a simple yes or no. Spot gold has been holding near the US$5,000 level, which shows fear and uncertainty still drive demand. Canadians should consider gold only as a small stabilizer in a diversified portfolio, not as a high-conviction growth bet. If you own none, starting modestly can make sense. If you already hold a meaningful amount, chasing this rally can backfire fast. Yet investors could still look beyond gold, to gold stocks.

AGI

Alamos Gold ( TSX:AGI ) offers a more active way to express a gold view. It is a Canadian-listed producer with operating mines and growth projects, and Island Gold in Ontario sits at the centre of its long-term story. Instead of just tracking the metal, you get leverage to execution, cost control, and project delivery. That can work beautifully when management hits targets. It can sting when something slips.

The last year brought a steady drip of milestones and reminders. In mid-January, Alamos reported fourth-quarter and annual 2025 production and highlighted balance sheet strength, with cash and cash equivalents rising to $623 million at year-end and net cash of $423 million. That matters because it suggests Alamos can fund growth internally, which can reduce dilution risk when capital markets get picky.

It also set the stage for a new chapter. Alamos said it would provide updated three-year production and operating guidance in February 2026. In a hot gold era, that timing matters. Investors will want proof that margins and cash flow can keep up, even if gold cools.

The newest outlook headline was bold. In early February, Alamos outlined three-year operating guidance that targets 46% production growth by 2028 and nearly a 20% decrease in AISC, with a longer-term path toward one million ounces annually by 2030, driven by the multi-phase expansion of the Island Gold District and the start-up of Lynn Lake. That is the kind of plan that can turn a gold stock into a compounding story, not just a price chart.

Into earnings

Recent earnings showed the business can already throw off real profits. In the third quarter of 2025, Alamos sold 136,473 ounces of gold for record operating revenues of $462.3 million, with an average realized gold price of $3,359 per ounce. It reported net earnings of $276.3 million and adjusted earnings of $155.5 million, or $0.37 per share. Those numbers help explain why the market has stayed interested.

Costs stayed in a workable range for a grower. In Q3 2025, Alamos reported total cash costs of $973 per ounce and AISC of $1,375 per ounce, which it described as consistent with the prior year period. It also pointed to meaningful growth capital aimed at Island Gold’s Phase 3+ expansion, which can pressure near-term free cash flow but support higher output later. This is where patience pays, or breaks.

Valuation adds a final layer of risk. The gold stock trades at about 34.7 times earnings, and it shows a small forward dividend yield around 0.23%.That mix tells you investors already expect growth, and the dividend will not cushion much downside if the gold price turns. You buy Alamos for the build-out and the operating torque, not for income.

Bottom line

So, could AGI be a buy for Canadians right now? It could, if you want exposure to gold with a gold stock that has cash, a clear growth roadmap, and a stated plan to lower costs over time. It could also be a pass if you want something calmer, or if you worry that gold near record levels leaves less margin for error. Either way, size it like a volatile position, because it will behave like one. Watch two things in the next update: progress at Island Gold and guidance for AISC. If those trends move the wrong way, the market can reprice the stock quickly overnight.

The post Should Canadians Buy Gold Right Now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada .

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

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