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For several years now, officials at the Federal Reserve claim that they are data driven. Well, the markets continue to take the Fed at its word. After favorable words by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials this week, the stock market has took off, bond prices r...
Elga assesses the options the Fed is considering during its monetary policy review. This is the third post in a series of blog posts on the Fed and inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve is considering a monetary policy shift from its flexible inflation forecast targeting to one of se...
If you wanted to, you could point to news that the US will delay the imposition of higher tariff rates on some Chinese products to June 15 as a catalyst for the Friday morning surge in equities ( SPY ), but it's probably safe to assume that rate cut bets are again playing a big role in propell...
Following this morning's soft jobs print , traders in short-term interest rates have sharply upped bets on rate cuts - with a move by the Fed in July now seen as a near-certainty. More news on: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF, Vanguard Sh...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 5 by Menzie Chinn here . Spreads relative to 3 months continue to decline. Source: BondSuperMart.com . On the run yields. In other words, despite interruptions, key term spreads are declining even as economic policy uncerta...
Here’s a key quote from yesterday's complimentary edition of The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough: “The problem remains that you can't eliminate the economic cycle. While it's nice to imagine PE Powell and the Vice Chair of the Fed coming out every single day, r...
You'd think that the more trouble the US causes around the world, the weaker the dollar would trade. Who, after all, wants to own the currency of the country perceived by most to be the source of today's long list of trade conflicts and dirty wars? Apparently everyone, in a dynamic that's be...
Markets are again in an unsettled state. Gyrations in trade policy in the United States are one culprit, although more speculative financing practices at the fringes of the system are also running into difficulties. Although I am writing a book on recessions, my argument is that recessions are...
By Bluford Putnam A rally in U.S. Treasuries, with prices rising and yields dropping, has reignited concerns over the health of the economy. What's driving the bond market? Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
Inflation expectations have sharply fallen recently, driving down U.S. government bond yields and focusing attention on Fed policy. The market now expects three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2020. The Fed is getting concerned that its current toolkit won't effectively counter a future recession....
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2024-05-27 04:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-07 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-19 02:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...