An Equity Bear And A Commodity Boom?

2025-04-30 09:27:00 ET

Summary

• We think there’s a very real possibility that an equity bear market could unfold in parallel with a commodity bull market.
• It would be very different from anything that happened over the past three decades, a period during which the commodity markets generally weakened when the stock market was very weak, but very similar to what happened during the 1970s.
• What we could see over the coming quarters is more of what happened since early December of last year.

Editor's Note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on April 30, 2025

Due to everything we are seeing and expecting, including the performance of the gold price and shortages that potentially will stem from Trump’s trade war, we think there’s a very real possibility that an equity bear market could unfold in parallel with a commodity bull market. If so, it would be very different from anything that happened over the past three decades, a period during which the commodity markets generally weakened when the stock market was very weak, but very similar to what happened during the 1970s. As illustrated by the following monthly chart, a broad basket of commodity prices rose substantially during the equity bear market of 1973-1974....

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