Full Market Cycles: Half Bull And Half Bear

2025-11-17 11:11:00 ET

Last week, we discussed the importance of “math” as it relates to valuations and noted the importance of understanding “ full market cycles.” To wit:

“ The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up. The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. Historical data, as illustrated in the following chart, suggest that valuations do not decline without a significant impact on investment returns. Additionally, it is worth noting that “full market cycles,” which encompass both secular bull and bear periods, recur throughout history.”

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