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The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...
Have seen a sharp increase in US and global interest rates, both in emerging markets in 2021, and in developed market countries in 2022. Yield to worst is a very strong, reliable predictor of what future returns will be for investors if they hold an investment to maturity, or over a f...
A challenging macro mix is set to make investing a lot more challenging in the years ahead: The share of the world’s population that’s of working age seems to have peaked. Equity beta tells the tale, and helps show how equity-like an asset is. With higher beta comes ...
During the last Fed rate raising cycle, it took the Federal Reserve five years to raise the fed funds rate to 2.50%. The Fed kept rates far too low for far too long and now we are dealing with the consequences. Both fiscal and monetary policy have been highly inflationary, and we are ...
With U.S. bond market yields rising to levels not seen since 2018–19, market participants appear to be debating whether rates have further room to rise from here or whether the increases now represent a renewed buying opportunity to go long duration. The rise in UST yields thus...
The invasion of Ukraine is an inflationary shock to an already inflationary system. The International Energy Agency has warned that the impact on oil supply will peak only from May onwards. Since the war broke out, core government bonds have suffered sustained price declines unsee...
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise. While decelerating from the pace of 2021, U.S. economic growth is expected to remain positive in 2022, pending further unexpected inflat...
It looks like the war will last quite a bit longer than investors originally expected. This causes problems for our inflation situation, which ironically may mean a more aggressive Fed interest rate policy. The Fed may not be able to do anything about supply chain issues, but it sure ...
If China were to continue to pursue a Zero Covid policy amidst rising case counts, supply chains originating in Asia could get shut down again. On the food front, wheat is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged conflict, which has been reflected in the performance of wheat futures. ...
Many market pundits have advocated a strategy of “buying the dip” after significant selloffs, but does it always make sense to do so? Our analysis of asset performance following geopolitical events, alongside a deteriorating macro context, lead us to prefer a nimble and ...
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2024-07-30 04:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-20 04:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-10 05:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...