Bilibili: Stock's Risk/Reward Is Completely Different From Last Year

2026-04-15 01:10:40 ET

Thesis

Bilibili's ( BILI ) release of earnings for Q3 and Q4 reflects some stagnation of the business, particularly for gaming and VAS. Progress on gaming was a major catalyst that fueled the stock's outperformance in 2024 and 2025, being a powerful driver for sales growth and margin expansion. That driver has now been called into question. This puts Bilibili in a vulnerable position after its exceptional run in the past two years. Gaming, like content, is vulnerable to AI, as we have seen the market aggressively discounting SaaS and gaming sectors. Bilibili is also at risk here. All in all, I am maintaining the stock at "hold"....

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