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Summary Yield and risk continue to disagree with the latter taking the cue to rise from the former. I believe this is unsustainable and will resolve itself in one-of-three ways. In scenario 1 of stagflation, EM shorts would lose as would gold and commodity short-positions. Tankers...
Summary Global economic output contracted for a second straight month in September, adding to signs that businesses around the world are reporting the toughest conditions outside of pandemic lockdowns since the global financial crisis. Manufacturing is being hit by rising prices, ...
Summary The first-round outcome is likely to buoy Bolsonaro, whose showing was better than polling had indicated. Lula has not specified how he would reduce Brazil's large current structural fiscal deficit or contain the expansion in public debt (78% of GDP). The high projecte...
Summary Slower global growth, a strong US dollar, global supply chain woes as well as domestic economic factors have created headwinds for EMs. The week-long National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (Congress) begins on October 16. Jair Bolsonaro, the incumbent preside...
Summary Global equity markets outside of the United States have completed a third negative quarter, with the MSCI ACWI ex US IMI Index down 11.26% in the three months through October 30. For the year to date, this index is down 27.19%, which clearly indicates a “bear market...
Summary Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the first-round against incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s - neither candidate captured more than 50% of the vote, so there will be a runoff on October 30. Bolsonaro has improved his chances for a second term, although the odds remain stro...
Summary Brazilians remain polarized following this past weekend’s inconclusive presidential election. While many analysts expect Lula to maintain the surprisingly narrow lead he garnered for the upcoming runoff vote, markets may remain rocky even under the assumption that a...
Summary Emerging markets have seen a sustained period of higher nominal yields over the past 18 months. This backdrop of moderating inflation raises the question of whether there is light at the end of the tunnel for monetary policy tightening. We do not expect cuts in the ver...
Summary On 16 August 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the IRA. The COVID-19-related global supply chain disruptions, extreme weather events, rising inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis have pushed the cost of capital to record highs. Meanwhile, in China, surging c...
Summary The effects of volatility in 2022 have been felt by investors globally — however, there may be opportunities to be selective within emerging markets. Accessing less-volatile stocks in emerging markets through minimum volatility ETFs may be attractive as a way to mai...
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2024-07-18 17:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-08 15:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-08 17:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...