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Disinflation, and ultimately deflation, is a more significant threat than inflation over the next two years. Over the coming decades, the massive surge in unproductive debt will increase deflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Throughout 2022, disinflation will likely b...
For investors who want to earn a reasonable return without taking excessive risks, diversification still works, and we think you’re going to need more of it this year. The weighing of the high-flyers is not over. Commodities had another good week, and the 1-year return is getti...
2022 is starting with several issues that could create serious volatility for traders in the months ahead. The situation in the Indo-Pacific is a slowly developing story between China and Taiwan. The Ukrainian situation is a bit different in that there are two main markets which c...
We believe that the CPI has flaws in estimating the inflation rate. The Phillips Curve helps us to understand only the past. Financial markets seem to have overreacted in their fear of the Fed. For further details see: Phillips Curves And The Fed
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, discusses his thoughts on the top themes to watch going into 2022. The world economy came into 2021 like a car going 200 miles an hour, which fueled by the biggest stimulus we'd gotten since World War II. The Fed is sort of the cause of the uncertainty ...
We have seen crypto disruption expand across the financial system and expect this to continue. Inflation pressures may linger through 2022 and pose a risk of spiraling into a more persistent economic factor. Historically in these market environments, real assets—including n...
Despite ongoing inflation hype, the U.S. prices paid trend indicator peaked in June 2021 and turned down - this typically leads ISM Manufacturing prices by 2-3 months and suggests inflationary pressures will continue to reverse. Commodities are signalling a similar story, with the Gol...
Investors gain confidence when they have a clear sense of direction, particularly regarding short-term market moves. This is increasingly true as markets move closer to the top of a major phase. Thus, extreme confidence, while generally reassuring, is a warning sign of a nearby top. ...
Certainly, rising metals prices are seen as an inflationary pressure themselves. However, they can also be seen as a hedge against inflation if the expectation is metal prices will continue to rise. Metals have largely failed to react so far to inflation fears. If the market b...
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2024-07-10 14:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-10 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-30 01:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...