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Factors driving inflation higher in the last few months eased in July. Orlando: It takes a long time for the supply, demand mismatch to even out. Orlando: Economic recovery the most important factor for overall inflation. For further details see: Has The U.S. Inflation W...
The 10-year Treasury yield declined a bit during the Afghanistan crisis, so all eyes are now on the Fed to see how new realities will impact monetary policy. The Fed released its latest FOMC minutes, which revealed a disagreement within the FOMC about when QE tapering will begin. On T...
Weak PMIs mean expectations of strong taper warnings at Jackson Hole are being pared back. This could be a mistake, but pessimism means even a hawkish Fed would be greeted with a modest market reaction. In the meantime, supply skews rates moderately higher this week. For fur...
The media wants you to believe that the tapering of Quantitative Easing is a big deal with a potential bad outcome (“if it bleeds, it leads”). The exact opposite is the case. Covid Delta as a weapon of mass economic destruction - another media obsession. Is this round tw...
Falling growth does not mean the economy is contracting. It merely means that the rate of increase is slowing. How much it slows is something we can't know yet, but it is exactly what we've been expecting for months as we watched bond yields drop. One reason I think the current enviro...
Relative to the 2020M02 nationwide peak, as of July Wisconsin NFP is down 3.8%, as compared to 3.7% nationwide. The dualistic nature of the recovery persists, with high contact services employment remaining more depressed than that for goods production. The recovery in leisure and...
The rebound in consumer participation is an important part of the growth story we’ve seen in 2021, with accommodative monetary and fiscal policies also playing an important role. Going forward, we see these forces continuing to drive growth - albeit with some moderation - as co...
Taking investment cues from market price trends is pure Momentum Investing. Fundamentals do indeed determine the price trends over longer periods, but not within the time frame presented by media pundits. Fear of loss (risk) is the main driver in the human psyche, and this has long be...
The next Z.1 report comes out in late September, but will only bring the data up to June 30th. I use a pair of adjustments to adjust the share of assets invested in risk assets between releases. The share of funds model now rates the market as having the highest valuation since 1945. ...
Any disappointment in key US data today is likely to see a larger reaction than a consensus beat. Markets are primed for hints of further deceleration, sentiment already dampened by the spreading delta variant and geopolitics. More concrete hints on the Fed taper will be needed fo...
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2024-07-10 19:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-20 07:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-30 13:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...