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June saw us hit what I call the “growth concern phase” of this tightening cycle. As equities declined, credit spreads widened and global yields rose in the first half of the year, it was only a matter of time until conditions tightened enough to slow growth to the point ...
The employment report released last Friday was better than expected, but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. The employment report was indeed better than expected, the gain of 372k jobs well in excess of expectations of 240k. The bulls were quick to poin...
While resiliency is a positive sign for the economy, a strong job market will make it harder for the Fed to bring down inflation. The Labor Force Participation rate dropped back to 62.2%. YoY, this June is lower than last June by 185k jobs. Despite a job report that beat expectati...
The LIBOR replacement, SOFR, is failing to measure credit risk at a time when managing this risk is most important. The coming market failure will thus be partly a result of financial regulators’ myopic approach to protecting market stability. Regulators protect components ...
First of all, payroll figures out on Friday looked quite good. That is, wage inflation continues to moderate and unemployment is low at 3.6%. We analyze yield curves, technical data, prior bear markets and corporate earnings among other metrics looking for signs of a bottom. The d...
Last month, when the Federal Reserve hiked 75 bp instead of the 50 it had signaled, Chair Powell cited the unexpectedly strong CPI and elevated University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations. While inflation did accelerate, the core rate fell. Moreover, the Fed targets the PCE...
The late-nineties U.S. “tech” Bubble was financed, at the margin, by high-yield debt (telecom, in particular), speculative hedge fund levered finance, and GSE liquidity. The current backdrop is unique. The bottom line is that the situation in China continues to deter...
The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank runs a predictive model called GDPNow, which forecasts a decline of 1.9 percent for Q2 GDP as of today. After the longest growth cycle on record, from 2009-20, we had the shortest recession on record. While we agree with some of the insights for a ...
It will be a busy week for Fed speak as Williams talks about LIBOR on Monday, Barkin discusses recession on Tuesday, Waller speaks on Thursday and Bostic talks on Friday. Energy traders will have a lot to keep their eye on next week as President Biden makes a trip to the Middle East a...
Initial jobless claims remain historically healthy in the low 200K range, but the most recent week’s data did mark one of the highest readings of the year. The current week has historically been the worst of the year in terms of week-over-week moves only having seen unadjusted ...
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2024-06-20 22:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-20 08:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-30 13:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...